Talarico leads Cornyn, Paxton in latest U.S. Senate poll
The former school teacher and state legislator leads both of his potential GOP opponents in this nonpartisan poll.
James Talarico, who won his party’s primary back in March, is leading both of his potential Republican opponents in the race for U.S. Senate. Although the lead is within or close to the margin of error, it points to a hotly contested race ahead of the May GOP runoff, which both Cornyn and Paxton are hoping to win.
The poll, conducted by the nonpartisan firm Texas Public Opinion Research, shows Talarico ahead of Cornyn with 44% support compared to 41% support. Additionally, Talarico is leading Ken Paxton with 46% support compared to 41% for Paxton. The polling took place between April 17-20 and included over 1,018 likely voters.
While polling is not necessarily a predictor for future results, it is a good snapshot of where the race is at today. The fact that Talarico is polling ahead of any of the GOP candidates is a good sign for the future. The last time Texas Democrats were this confident in their U.S. Senate nominee, it was 2018 with Beto O’Rourke facing off against Ted Cruz. O’Rourke came within 2.6% points of victory, but notably never polled ahead of Cruz in any independent survey. The Real Clear Politics average for that race had Cruz with a +7% lead over O’Rourke. If Talarico were to outperform the polls as O’Rourke had, he will be the next U.S. Senator from the State of Texas.
Democrats are cautiously optimistic about this race, due to the fact that Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, and polling the Lone Star State remains a difficult task due to our large rural population and the variety of major metropolitan areas. Still, Talarico does continue to raise massive sums of money, far out-pacing both of his Republican opponents, which is a testament to the enthusiasm behind his candidacy.
Take a look at the full polling results for a more detailed breakdown:
