Polls show a tight race for U.S. Senate in "deep red" Texas
The latest polling suggests Democrat James Talarico has a legitimate shot at unseating scandal-plagued Republican Ken Paxton in Texas’ high-stakes U.S. Senate race.
Texas has ben a reliably red state for over thirty years, but the Republican Party’s monopoly on power may finally be starting to break. Due to a combination of economic anxiety, voter fatigue, Donald Trump’s rising unpopularity, and Paxton’s controversial past, Democrats might actually have a chance at winning the statewide race for U.S. Senate.
With Donald Trump’s endorsement of Ken Paxton over incumbent Senator John Cornyn, it’s all-but-guaranteed that Talarico will face-off against Paxton in the general election. Paxton, for his part, has surprisingly had a difficult time raising money for his campaign. He previously begged his billionaire donors and supporters for 20 million dollars, but as of the last campaign finance report, he had raised less than 6 million dollars. Meanwhile, James Talarico raised a record-breaking 27 million dollars, which will be a huge asset leading up to Election Day.
The latest poll from Texas Southern University, shows Talarico tied with Paxton, with each candidate receiving 45% support. This result is a disaster for Republicans and confirms their greatest fear: the real possibility of losing Texas. When Beto O’Rourke was running against Ted Cruz in 2018, O’Rourke never polled higher than Cruz. In fact, the Real Clear Politics polling average had Cruz with a +7% lead, meaning O’Rourke over-performed the polling average by over 4 points, losing to Cruz by roughly 2.6%. As of today, the Real Clear Politics average shows the Democrat, Talarico, with a 1.5% average lead over Paxton. If Talarico were to over-perform like O’Rourke, he will be the next U.S. Senator from Texas.
Republicans will likely end up spending a lot of money on this race, but Talarico’s war chest should be able to blunt most of the GOP’s spending. Paxton is also much less popular than Cruz was at that time, after spending much of this past decade riddled in personal and professional scandals. Paxton, as a frequent philanderer, destroy’s the Republican Party’s claims to family values, while Talarico, a former schoolteacher and seminarian in training, has a unique ability to speak in a language Christian Texans understand.
As the battle for Texas’ Senate seat intensifies, all eyes will remain on the race in the months leading up to Election Day in November, and the Pioneer will continue covering every major development along the way.