New poll shows Democrats can flip this Trump district
A new survey finds Democrats leading or within the margin of error in various races among voters in Texas' 23rd congressional district.
Texas’ 23rd congressional district has voted for Donald Trump in the last three presidential elections and he carried the district by 15 points in 2024, but today Democrats are now surging in new district polling. According to a new survey from Public Policy Polling, James Talarico beats both John Cornyn and Ken Paxton among TX-23 voters in the race for U.S. Senate. In the gubernatorial race, Gina Hinojosa is tied with current incumbent Greg Abbott, while Democrat Katy Padilla Stout trails Brandon Herrera in the race for U.S. House by just two points.
Republican Tony Gonzales currently holds this seat, but was forced to end his re-election campaign after pressure from national Republicans following an affair with a staffer that preceded her self-immolation. The GOP’s replacement for Gonzales is Brandon Herrera, a controversial social media figure who may prove to be too-polarizing for TX-23 voters.
Democrats believe these latest developments have opened a rare opportunity to flip this West Texas congressional district. This would be a stunning blow to Republicans, who spent weeks and large amounts of political capital on their mid-decade redistricting efforts that were designed to make sure places like TX-23 would elect a Republican. This latest poll is more evidence that Democrats are becoming more competitive in places once considered safe havens for Republicans.
While Democrats should feel confident with these numbers coming out of TX-23, the district comes with its own unique set of challenges that makes traditional campaigning very difficult. Still, Democrats do stand a real chance at flipping this U.S. House district if they seriously invest in the race and if Katy Padilla Stout can win over the trust of local voters. Padilla Stout is a former public school teacher and current attorney running on a progressive populist platform that includes universal Pre-K, Medicare for All, and reducing costs for working families.
This polling should be setting off alarm bells for national Republicans. If they lose this House seat, Democrats will almost certainly have the numbers to take back the House after the midterms. And over in the Senate, this poll shows James Talarico with a massive 5-6 point lead over both potential Republican opponents among TX-23 voters. If Talarico finishes in November with similar numbers in other rural districts, he will be the next U.S. Senator from Texas.
Whether the polling numbers hold or shift as the campaign unfolds, one thing is quite clear: this district is shaping up to be one of the most competitive races in the state and potentially one of the most consequential.